基于多因素分析的我国煤炭消费及节能减排潜力预测

本文首先对1996~2015 年我国煤炭消费量、经济增长、单位 GDP 能耗、环境规制强度、能源消费结构数据进行协整分析，发现存在长期均衡关系，并通过格兰杰检验发现经济增长、单位GDP能耗、环境规制强度、能源消费结构均是煤炭消费量的格兰杰成因。其次借助协整方程，对各参数设置了基准变化，给出了 2016~2025 年的煤炭消费预测。最后，在基准预测的基础上进行情景模拟，对煤炭消费量和节能减排潜力进行预测。

Foresting of Coal Consumpiton and Energy Saving and Emissions Reduction Potential Based on the Multiple Factors

First，by the data of coal consumption and economic growth，energy consumption per unit GDP，environmental regulation intensity，energy consumption structure from 1996~2015，the cointegration test shows that there exists long-term equilibrium relationship and the granger test tells that economic growth，energy consumption per unit GDP，environmental regulation intensity，and energy consumption structure is the granger cause of coal consumption.Then，by cointegration equation and setting the benchmark value of parameters，the forecasting of coal consumption between 2016~2025 are given. Last，by scenario analysis，the saving and emissions reduction potential are assessed.