政府土地供应政策、行政调控政策对房价波动的影响——基于中国35个城市的证据

2016年中国面临了新一轮的房价上涨，政府调控对房价调节起着重要的作用。本文从中国35个城市2010～2016年的土地供应政策（土地竞拍过程中的额外规定）和行政调控政策（“限贷”、“限购”和住房规划政策）的变化来研究其对房价波动的影响，得出土地供应调控和“限购”政策对房价的显著正向作用，但“限贷”和住房规划政策对房的作用与预期相反并做了相应的分析，最后提出3个稳定房价的建议：（1）在供给侧的调控仍以增加土地供应为核心，各大城市统筹兼顾，突出重点。（2）在需求侧的调控则以“限贷”、“限购”为抑制房价上涨的短期有效的政策工具。（3）土地制度改革是稳定房价根本措施。

Government's Land Supply Regulations and Administrative Regulations'Effects on the Housing Prices' Fluctuations——Evidence Based on 35 Cities in China

China has experienced a new round of housing prices' rising in 2016,and government's regulation plays an important role in the regulation of housing prices.Based on the change of land supply policy of China's 35 cities from 2010 to 2016(ad ditional provisions in the process of land auction),and the change of administr ative regulation(credit limit,home purchase restrictions,housing planning polic y),this article studies the regulations influence on the housing prices' fluct uations,it's concluded that the land supply regulation and home purchase restri ction policy have significant positive effects on housing prices,however,the eff ect of the credit limit and housing planning policy on the housing prices is con trary to expectations,and the corresponding analysis is made.Finally this articl e puts forward three proposals to stabilize housing prices:(1)Regulation in th e supply side is still to increase land supply as the core policy,each big city should make overall planning and take all-round consideration,and highlight the key points.(2)In terms of the demanding side,it takes credit limit and home pu rchase restriction as the effective regulation tools for the short-term to curb housing prices' rising.(3)The design and reform of the land system is the cri tical points.