| 用时间序列与线性规划分析2020年中国的能源结构 |
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| 引用本文： | 李延明,张传平.用时间序列与线性规划分析2020年中国的能源结构[J].工业技术经济,2011,30(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 李延明 张传平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中石化胜利油田公司,东营,257000
2. 中国石油大学,东营,257061 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(课题编号:R090629B) |
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| 摘 要： | 我国二氧化碳排放量位居世界第一,应对未来的环境问题,优化能源结构,减少温室气体的排放是必然的选择。本文利用时间序列分析,预测中国2020年能源需求总量为449074.91万吨标准煤,指数计算其GDP是765009.92亿元。利用中国有碳与无碳能源发展作为约束条件,以碳排放最小化为目标函数,建立L.P.模型,计算证明2020年中国排放9977.05百万公吨CO2,相当于1.30公吨CO2/亿元GDP,比2005年3.02公吨CO2/亿元GDP,降低57%;届时,核电、水电及风力与太阳能发电满足电力总需求的16%。
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| 关 键 词： | 二氧化碳排放 时间序列分析 能源结构优化 |
Analysis of China Energy Structure in 2020 With Time Series & Lineal Programming |
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| Li Yanming,Zhang Chuanping.Analysis of China Energy Structure in 2020 With Time Series & Lineal Programming[J].Industrial Technology & Economy,2011,30(5). |
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| Authors: | Li Yanming Zhang Chuanping |
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| Institution: | Li Yanming1 Zhang Chuanping2(1.Financial Department of Shengli Oil Field Branch of Sinopec,Dongying 257000,China,2.China University of Petroleum,Dongying 257061,China) |
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| Abstract: | With the rapidly economic development,China's energy demand has constantly increased and environment problems have become more and more serious.Nowadays,China releases the most quantity of carbon dioxide in the world.For dealing with the serious environment problems in the future,it is necessary to cut down the emissions of greenhouse gases.The energy consumption total demand & GDP is predicted as 4.4 billion standardized ton coal and R.M.B 76.5 trillion Yuan in 2020.The L.P.model is set forth,with carbon a... |
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| Keywords: | carbon dioxide emission energy structure optimization time series analysis |
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