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中国能源需求预测及供给对策
引用本文:高广阔,张能进.中国能源需求预测及供给对策[J].电力技术经济,2005,17(3):9-13,23.
作者姓名:高广阔  张能进
作者单位:上海理工大学商学院,上海,200093
摘    要:随着中国工业化和现代化进程的加快,能源需求越来越大。同时能源利用效率不高、污染严重等问题也暴露出来了。本世纪初二十年中国能源消耗的总量将迟到什么水平,其品种结构又将如何,这是规划能源建设的前提依据。本文通过弹性预测法、回归预测法、间接预测法三种方法预测上述指标。同时简单介绍中国能源供给现状及趋势,提出一些相应的时策。

关 键 词:能源消费弹性系数  回归预测法  能源利用效率
文章编号:1008-1682(2005)03-0009-05
修稿时间:2004年12月20

Energy Demand Forecast for China and Supply Countermeasure
Gao Guangkuo,ZHANG Nengjin.Energy Demand Forecast for China and Supply Countermeasure[J].Electric Power Technologic Economics,2005,17(3):9-13,23.
Authors:Gao Guangkuo  ZHANG Nengjin
Abstract:Energy demand is becoming increasing large with the speeding up of industrialization and modernization process in China.On the other hand,the problem of low efficiency of energy utilization and high pollution is also increasingly exposed.The level of overall energy consumption and the composition of energy structure in the first twenty years of this century is a preconditioned basis for China's energy construction planning.This paper elaborates its forecast results of above-mentioned indexes using elastic forecast method,regression forecast method and indirect forecast method.It also provides a brief introduction to current situation and development trend of China's energy supply and some related countermeasures.
Keywords:energy consumption elastic coefficient  regression forecast method  energy utilization efficiency
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