基于Kaya公式的中国CO2排放影响因素分解

基于Kaya公式的分析框架，采用对数平均Divisia因素分解法分析了能源碳排放强度、单位GDP能耗、人均收入和人口因素对我国1978—2009年CO2排放的影响。结果表明，我国人均收入的高速增长带来了CO2排放量的快速增长，人口对于CO2排放量的拉动作用稳定在一个较低水平，单位GDP能耗的持续下降对抑制CO2排放起到了持续而显著的作用，能源碳排放强度变化微弱。因此，在进一步提高能源利用效率的同时，发展新能源产业，调整现有能源结构，是我国实现低碳经济的重要途径。

Empirical Analysis of China＇ s Carbon Emission Based on Kaya Identity and Decomposition Model

Under the framework of Kaya identity, this paper analyzes how the indicators of carbon intensity of energy consumption, energy intensity of GDP, per capita income and population have impacted China＇s CO2 emission from 1978 to 2009 by applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index and decomposition model. Results show that China＇s remarkable CO2 emission increment is mainly due to fast-growing per capita income while contribution from the population growth has been stablized at a low level; continuously declining energy intensity of GDP significantly eases the emission growth in spite of fluctuations; and carbon intensity of energy consumption has undergone slight change through the years. Therefore, developing clean energy and upgrading the existing energy consumption structure while further improving energy efficiency are the main approaches for China to switch to a low-carbon economy.