升级预期、决策偏好与产业垂直升级——基于我国制造业上市公司实证分析

产业升级作为企业战略性选择,与决策者的决策偏好与升级预期密切相关。升级预期是决策者全面权衡成功与失败概率后的预期收益,不是价值链各环节输出值"U"型曲线(即所谓"微笑曲线"),而是价值链期望值倒"U"型曲线(即所谓"哭泣曲线")。面临"哭泣曲线",对多数理性的风险中性者而言,进入产业升级风险系数最小、期望值最大的生产加工环节,无疑是理性选择,由此使得发展中国家产业垂直升级出现低端锁定效应。因此培育企业家冒险精神,改变其决策偏好;提升升级能力,改变企业升级预期,是我国企业突破产业垂直升级低端锁定的主要路径。对中国沪深制造业上市公司数据的计量检验表明,上述结论基本准确,并且冒险精神、技术能力和营销能力对品牌升级影响贡献率达到90%以上,但不同类型产业企业品牌升级对核心能力的要求有所差异。

Upgrading Expectation,Decision-making Preferences and Industrial Vertical Upgrading——Empirical Analysis Based on Data of Listed Companies in China’s Manufacturing Industries

As a strategical choice of an enterprise,upgrading is closely related to entrepreneur’s decision-making preference and upgrading expectation.Upgrading expectation is the expected revenue after weighing probability of success.It is not the value-added output of a "U" shape value chain "smiling curve",but the expected value-added of a inverse "U" shape value chain "crying curve".Faced with the "crying curve",for most risk rational deciders,it is a rational choice to enter product links of minimum risk and maximum expected value,which leads to lock-in effect of vertical upgrading for developing countries.Therefore,cultivating entrepreneurs’ spirit of adventure to change their decision-making preferences,promoting upgrading capacity to change upgrading expectations are main ways to breakthrough lock-in effect of vertical upgrading in China.In this paper,empirical analysis based on data from Shanghai and Shenzhen listed manufacturing companies proves that spirit of adventure,technical ability and marketing skills contribute more than 90% to brand upgrading,but different industry regression analyses also show that enterprise’s brand upgrading requests different core competence in different industries.