未来15年中国经济增长潜力与“十四五”时期经济社会发展主要目标及指标研究

“十三五”时期中国经济社会发展取得了显著成绩,脱贫攻坚成就举世瞩目,“四新经济”蓬勃发展,营商环境明显改善,对外开放水平显著提高,环境污染治理成效明显,各方面风险管控有力。本文从供给侧角度,基于人口结构的变化预测未来潜在增长率。不断降低的总和生育率和人口老龄化趋势都将对供给侧生产要素产生直接的负向影响,最终会导致潜在经济增长率放缓。本文在情景预测中考虑了产能利用率和不能增加有效生产能力的环境污染治理投资对实际利用资本存量的影响。未来15年,中国经济不仅规模显著增加,而且结构也将发生明显变化。“十四五”时期,推动中国经济社会持续健康发展,应遵循如下几个基本原则:坚持以高质量发展为导向,以创新驱动为基石,以全面深化改革为动力,以更高水平开放为牵引,坚持以人民为中心的发展思想。立足于“十三五”末期的国内外环境,按照开启基本实现社会主义现代化建设新征程的目标要求,“十四五”时期中国经济社会发展的主要目标应该涵盖以下六个方面:创新驱动取得显著进展,产业升级取得显著成效,国内市场得到显著提升,人民生活得到显著改善,绿色发展取得显著进展,国家治理体系更加完善。基于这些主要目标和中国经济未来增长潜力预测,参考国家中长期相关专项规划,并要留有余地,本文对“十四五”时期主要指标的选择及其目标设定给出了具体建议。

Research on the Potential Growth of the Chineses Economy in the Next 15 Years and the Main Goals and Indicators of Economic and Social Development during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period,remarkable achievements have been made in the economic and social development in China,with the historical poverty alleviation attracting worldwide attention,the“four new economies”growing flourishingly,the business environment improving significantly,the economy further opening up,the environmental pollution being treated and prevented effectively,and major risks in key areas being managed properly.In this paper,we make a forecast of the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy in the future from the perspective of supply side,based on the change of population structure.The decreasing total fertility rate and the trend of population aging will cause negative impact on the factors of production on the supply side,which will eventually lead to the slowdown of the potential growth rate.In the scenario prediction,we consider the impact of capacity utilization rate and investment in environmental pollution prevention and treatment which cannot increase the actual productive capital stock.In the next 15 years,while the scale of the Chinese economy will expand substantially,the economic structure will also experience dramatic transformation.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the economy and society in China,we should follow the following basic principles:promoting high-quality oriented economic development;empowering the economic development by innovation,comprehensively deepening reform,as well as higher level opening-up;and adhering to the people-centered development thinking.Based on the domestic and international environment at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period and in accordance with the requirements of the goal of starting the new journey to basically realize socialist modernization,the major goals of China’s economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period should include the following aspects:making significant progress in innovation-driven economic growth,upgrading the industrial structure,expanding the domestic market demand,improving people’s living standard,promoting green development,and improving the national governance system.To achieve these major goals,and with reference to the scenario prediction of the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy in the future as well as relevant national middle to long-term plans in certain special fields,and considering to leave appropriate leeway,we put forward some specific policy suggestions on the selection and setting of the main indicators during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.