供需结构优化、分配结构演化与2035年共同富裕目标展望

共同富裕是社会主义的本质要求,中国推动经济社会发展,归根结底是要实现全体人民共同富裕。新发展阶段下中国既要优化供需结构以加快构建新发展格局,又要改善分配结构以全面贯彻新发展理念,而供需结构优化与分配结构演化又是紧密关联的。本文建立了一个包含供给结构、需求结构和分配结构的多部门动态一般均衡模型,将分配结构演化分解到供给结构与需求结构转型上,提出了需求结构通过影响供给结构进而影响分配结构的理论机制。本文对近三十年全球四十余个经济体劳动收入份额和技能溢价的演化进行了发展核算,展示了中国分配结构演化的特征事实、供需动因与国际比较。研究发现,中国分配结构演化道路具有一定的特殊性:一方面,劳动收入份额转为上升,供给侧(需求侧)最主要的推动力是持续提高的劳动密集型产业(消费品)的劳动密集程度;另一方面,技能溢价不断扩大,供给侧(需求侧)最主要的推动力是持续提高的产业内部(消费品)的技能密集程度;供需结构转型在其中也发挥了重要作用。本文还基于历史趋势定量预测了未来中国分配结构的演化趋势,为实现2035年共同富裕目标提供了现实依据与政策参考。

Structural Transformation in Supply and Demand,Evolution of Income Distribution,and the Prospect of China’s Common Prosperity in 2035

Common prosperity is an essential requirement of socialism.All the China’s efforts to promote social and economic development can boil down to the realization of common prosperity for everyone.In its new development stage,China should upgrade the supply and demand structure to foster the new development dynamic,as well as improve the distribution structure to fully implement the new development philosophy.Moreover,the structural transformation in supply and demand and the evolution of income distribution are closely associated.This paper builds a multi-sector dynamic equilibrium model with structural transformation in supply and demand and with evolution of income distribution.The model facilitates us to decompose changes in factor income distribution into the structural transformation in supply and demand,which reveals a novel mechanism that the demand structure may affect factor income distribution by affecting the supply structure.This paper then conducts development accounting for the evolution of labor income share and skill premium in more than forty economies over the last three decades,which in turn quantifies the stylized facts,the underlying economic forces,and the international comparative results for China’s income distribution.This paper shows that China has undergone a distinct evolution path of income distribution.On the one hand,China’s labor income share turns to increase,with the rises of labor intensity in the labor-intensive sector and in the consumption sector as the most influential forces.On the other hand,China’s skill premium constantly increases,with the rises of skill intensity in all the sectors and in the consumption sector as the most influential forces.This paper also forcasts the prospect of China’s income distribution based on the latest trends,with which it discusses about realistic basis and policy implication for China’s common prosperity in 2035.