地区差距的新视角:人口与产业分布不匹配研究

地区差距从空间上看表现为人口与产业分布的不匹配,因此研究不匹配是审视地区差距的一个新视角。本文通过构造测度不匹配程度的指数,描绘了我国人口与产业不匹配程度的现状与变化趋势;并在分析不匹配形成机理的基础上,提出了三个可能导致其扩大的研究假设。通过实证分析,发现人口与产业不匹配程度会随着经济发展呈现出先升后降的变化趋势,在此过程中,人口迁移壁垒、资本边际产出变动差异对不匹配扩大起到了推动作用,而国家区域协调发展战略在阻止其扩大方面发挥了一定的作用。

A New Perspective of Regional Disparity: Research on the Mismatch of Population and Industrial Distribution

The regional disparity can be expressed as mismatching between population and industries from a spatial point of view,which is a new perspective in looking at regional disparity.In this paper,we first construct some indexes to measure the status and trends of the mismatch.Second,we try to explain the mismatch by three hypotheses,including the population migration barriers,changes of capital marginal return and the regional policies of the government.Our empirical results showed that the mismatch firstly increased then decreased with the economic development.During the course,the population migration barriers and regional differences of capital marginal return are forces to increase the mismatch,and the regional coordinated development policies have partly reduced the degree of the mismatch.Finally,we have proposed some policy suggestions for reducing regional disparity based on our research results.