| Abstract: | This research uses innovation characteristics to assess product potential at two points in time. The two phases of the study consist of: (1) proposing and estimating purchase intention models and (2) reconciling predicted success with actual product performance. The investigation focuses on the impact of perceived product attributes, environmental variables, and consumer traits on the purchase intention of actual innovations within several technologically intensive product categories. Differences in model specification and parameter values are noted across product types. Results indicate consistency in the impact of product attributes across categories on an innovation's acceptability, but suggest differences in model specification with respect to environmental variables and consumer traits. The existence of a generic-to-specialized innovation continuum is a possible cause of the heterogeneity in results across products. An ex post analysis of the innovations indicates that, while success can be predicted quite accurately using perceived product attribute ratings, consumer and environmental variables should not be ignored for particular categories. The study has implications for the early screening of innovative durables, specifically with respect to forecasting model potential, determining product design and positioning, and developing promotional messages. |
