从复苏走向景气——2010年世界和中国石化工业综述及2011年展望

2010年,世界石化工业缓慢复苏,乙烯装置平均开工率为84.9%,新增乙烯产能1169万吨/年。世界乙烯产量为12328万吨,供应增长大于需求增长。以乙烷为原料的乙烯裂解装置比例在上升。美国仍是最大的乙烯生产国,但产能下降。乙烯及下游产品价格大幅上涨,石化工业进入上升周期,公司利润大幅增加。合成树脂新增产能较多,导致开工率下降;合成纤维产量平稳增长,导致合成纤维原料供应增速较快;合成橡胶供应增长主要来自中国。中国新增乙烯产能304万吨/年,总产能达到1496万吨/年,乙烯产量为1420.5万吨,产能和产量均大幅增加;乙烯当量消费量为2987万吨,增长11.2%。合成树脂产量大幅增长,进口量下降,全年需求增幅已恢复正常水平。合成橡胶供需均快速增长。2011年世界石化工业处于周期的景气阶段;供应增长主要来自中东和亚洲;美国以乙烷为原料的乙烯产能继续增长。中国的乙烯和合成树脂新增能力较少,但消费增速都较快;合成橡胶供应量增加较多,而需求增速下降。

From recovery to prosperity——Global and domestic petrochemical industry performance in 2010 and the outlook for 2011

The global petrochemical industry recovered slowly in 2010. The utilization rate for ethylene production capacity reached the relatively high level of 84.9% with the addition of 11.69 MTA in capacity and production reaching 123.28 MTA, outweighing demand. Ethane-based processing increased its share of production. While still the largest producer, the US had been losing ethylene capacity. With the sharply rising price of ethylene and downstream products, petrochemical companies’ profits jumped and the industry entered another cycle of prosperity. Ethylene capacity in China expanded by 3.04 MTA to a total capacity of 14.69 MTA while production reached 14.205 MTA in 2010, significant increases in both capacity and production. Corresponding demand for ethylene in China also rose by 11.2% in 2010. Production of synthetic resins in China went up considerably with declining exports and the recovery of demand, while synthetic rubber supply and demand grew rapidly. The global petrochemical industry will remain in a cycle of prosperity. New supply will come mainly from the Middle East and Asia. Growth in ethane-based capacity will continue. Although ethylene and synthetic resin consumption will grow quickly, new capacity building will decline in China, while demand for synthetic rubber will grow more slowly but with considerable new supply.