未来原油品质变化趋势及其对炼油行业的影响

剑桥能源咨询公司对全球范围的原油和凝析油的整体品质变化情况进行了评估,主要结论如下:一是全球原油品质出现下降的趋势,但在近期内世界原油品质总体变化很小,API度将从2011年的36.1降至2020年的35.8.二是原油品质的区域性变化较为显著并呈现较大波动性.中东北非原油供应中断对世界原油品质的总体影响不大,但对欧洲炼油行业影响较大.三是超重原油供应比例的增加速度超过炼油业的适应能力,对原料具有更大适应能力的超级炼油厂可能不断出现.此外,考虑到中东原油在中国原油进口结构中的重要地位,预计中国进口原油在未来一段时间内将有变重、变酸的趋势,这将对中国炼油厂加工重油的能力及灵活性提出更高要求.

Trend of future crude quality and its influence on the oil refining industry

Cambridge Energy Research Associates evaluated the overall change in the quality of crude and condensate oil across the world.Its main conclusions include:First,global crude is deteriorating;however,there has only been a minor change in quality recently.The API scale will decline from 36.1 in 2011 to 35.8 in 2020.Second,the regional change of crude quality is even more significant.Regional crude quality is subject to considerable fluctuation.Although the discontinuation of the supply from the Middle East and North Africa has had little impact on the global crude quality,it has a great influence on the European oil refining industry.Third,the increased supply of extra heavy crude,which outpaces the adaptability of the oil refining industry,will result in the further development of super refineries with better adaptability to raw materials.In addition,considering the important position of crude from the Middle East in China’s import crude mix,China’s imports of crude oil are expected to be heavier and more acidic for some time to come,which will impose greater requirements on the capacity and flexibility of China’s oil refineries in terms of the processing of heavy oil.