中国石油进出口分析及相关问题探讨

本世纪以来,我国石油进口量和进口额快速上升,引起国内外的关注。从能源/石油消费弹性系数、石油在一次能源消费构成中份额的变化,以及处于工业化初级阶段且人均耗油量很低的国情出发,文章认为我国有降低能源/石油消费弹性系数和大幅提高其利用效率的空间,但存在着增加石油消费量和进口量的刚性需求。十余年来,我国石油进口量和金额的双攀升不但没能制约经济发展、反而成为促进其快速增长的因素之一。预测近中期我国油气进口量和进口依存度仍将持续上升,且在2015-2020年可能成为世界油气第一进口国。为此,应提高国内油气产量和使用效率,生产和出口高附加值产品;以广义多元化的方式保障油气进口。文章还认为,进口量和进口依存度的大小与能源安全不存在简单的对等关系,建设足够的储备和参与国际合作是最重要的能源安全保障措施。

Analysis of China’s oil imports & exports and relevant problems

Since the beginning of this century,China’s oil import volumehas increased rapidly,attracting attention from home and abroad.Considering energy/oil consumption elasticity,petroleum’s changing role in the primary energy consumption structure,the national conditions of the primary stage in industrialization and very low per capita oil consumption,it is believed in this paper that China has room to reduce energy/oil consumption elasticity and significantly improve its utilization efficiency.However,there is rigid demand for the increasing of oil consumption and import volume.Over the past more than 10 years,the increase in China’s oil import volume did not curb economic development;instead,it turned into one of the incentives for rapid economic growth.It is predicted that China’s import volume of oil & gas and its dependency on imports will continue to grow in the medium term,and China might become the largest importer of oil & gas in the world in 2015-2020.For this reason,domestic oil & gas production and utilization efficiency shall be improved,high added value products will be produced and exported;and imports of oil & gas will be guaranteed in a pluralistic and broad manner.It is also believed in this paper that there is no simplistic correspondence between the import volume & dependency on imports and energy security;building sufficient reserves and participating in international cooperation is the most important guarantee of energy security.