2011年世界和中国石化工业综述及2012年展望

2011年,世界石化工业继续缓慢复苏,乙烯装置平均开工率为84.3％,新增乙烯产能360万吨/年,均处于较低水平；乙烯产量为12562万吨,供应增长大于需求增幅,乙烯毛利大幅下滑.美国仍是最大的乙烯生产国,国内低廉的气价使得以乙烷为原料的乙烯裂解产量上升.石化产业仍处于周期低谷,乙烯及下游产品价格涨幅小于原油,公司利润下降.合成树脂新增能力较多,导致开工率下降；合纤平稳增长而合纤原料供应增速较快；合成橡胶供应增长主要来自中国.中国新增乙烯产能24万吨/年,总产能达到1520万吨/年；乙烯产量为1553.6万吨；乙烯当量消费量为3132.4万吨,增长4.9％.合成树脂、合成橡胶产量保持较快增长,但需求增速放缓,进口量下降.全国化工行业产值和利润大幅增长.2012年,世界石化工业仍处于周期低谷；供应增长主要来自中东和亚洲；美国以乙烷为原料的乙烯产能继续增长；中国的乙烯和合成树脂新增能力不多,消费增速继续保持较低水平；中国的合成橡胶供应量增加较多,而需求增速下降.

Summary of the petrochemical industry globally and in China in 2011 and the outlook for 2012

In 2011,the global petrochemical industry was slowly recovering.The average operating rate of polyethylene was 84.3% and there was an increase in annual capacity of 3,600,000 tons,both of which are low.Ethylene production was 125,620,000 tons,while the growth of supply exceeded that of demand,thus the gross margin of ethylene declined significantly.The United States was still the largest oil producer.The low gas price led to an increase in the production of ethylene from ethane-cracking.The petrochemical industry was still at a cyclical low.The rise in the price of ethylene and its downstream products was less than that of oil,so the profit of companies fell.A great increase in the capacity of synthetic resin resulted in a decline in the operating rate.The synthetic fiber sector grew steadily,while the supply of raw materials for synthetic fiber grew rapidly.Most of the growth in the supply of synthetic fiber was from China.China’s annual ethylene capacity increased by 240,000 tons,and it totaled 15,200,000 tons.Ethylene production totaled 15,536,000 tons,while the equivalent consumption of ethylene was 31,324,000 tons,up by 4.9%.Synthetic resin and synthetic rubber production maintained fast growth,however,growth in demand slowed and their import volumes declined.The output value and profit of China’s chemical industry increased considerably.In 2012,the world petrochemical industry is still at a cyclical low,with most supply growth being in the Middle East and Asia.The capacity of ethylene from ethane in the United States continues to grow.China may experience a small increase in the capacity of ethylene and synthetic resin,and consumption growth will remain low.China’s supply of synthetic rubber will increase greatly,while demand will grow at a slower rate.