我国省级区域金融发展对经常项目的影响研究——基于货物贸易视角的分析

本文选取我国大陆31个省(市、自治区)2007年-2018年的面板数据,综合运用系统GMM和差分GMM估计方法,实证检验了沿海与内陆、沿边与非沿边、享受优惠政策高与低、金融控制强与弱等4类不同省区金融发展对经常项目余额的影响。研究结果表明:使用全部样本估计时,金融发展显著负向影响经常项目余额,这一结论经稳健性检验后依然成立。使用不同区域的子样本估计时,金融发展对沿海省区、非沿边省区、享受优惠政策高以及金融控制弱省区的经常项目余额的抑制作用较大,而在其他省区作用较小。因此,各地区应充分利用金融手段来调整进出口余额,以保证经常项目的持续平衡。

Effects of Regional Financial Development on Current Account Balance in China——Based on the Perspective of Commodity Trade

Using panel data of China’s 31 provinces over the period from 2007 to 2018, and the estimator of sys-GMM and dif-GMM methods, this paper aims to examine the relationship between financial development and current account balance in four difference regions, namely coastal and inland regions, border and non-border areas, and enjoy the level of preferential policies and the extend of financial control areas. The results of the regression show that financial development has a significantly and robust negative effect on the current account balance by used the full sample. Using the sub-sample of regions, however, financial development have a greater negative effect on the current account balance in coastal, non-border areas and those areas with high preferential policies and low financial control. Therefore, all regions of China should make full use of market-based financial means to replace administrative financial means and ensure the balance of current account continues.