海南城乡居民消费水平差异性分析和预测

从1985-2018年海南城乡居民收入、消费数据出发，分别建立消费关于收入、消费差距关于收入差距的自回归模型，结果表明农村居民当期消费更易受近期收入和消费水平的影响，具有不稳定性。再利用GM(1,1)模型预测城乡居民收入差距，结合自回归模型，完成未来10年海南城乡消费差距的预测：收入差距和消费差距将呈直线递增趋势，收入差距的增幅高于消费差距增幅。缩小海南城乡居民消费差距的根本途径在于缩小收入差距，应因地制宜，切实提高农民收入水平。

Analysis and Forecast on the Difference of Consumption Level between Urban and Rural Residents in Hainan

Based on the income and consumption data of urban and rural residents in Hainan from 1985 to 2018, firstly this paper established autoregressive models of consumption on income, then by contrasting the autoregressive models, the paper got the conclusion that the rural residents'' current consumption level was more susceptible to the influence of recent income and consumption level than the urban residents'', indicating that rural residents'' consumption level was more unstable. Then the paper established autoregressive model of the consumption gap on the income gap. By establishing GM(1,1) model the paper got forecast values of the income gap of the next 10 years, which realized the forecasting of the consumption gap through the previous autoregressive model. The forecasting results indicated that the income gap and consumption gap would increase linearly, and the increasing speed of income gap would be faster than that of the consumption gap. At last the paper pointed out that the way to narrow the consumption gap lied in narrowing the income gap, and that the local government should take measures to improve the farmers'' income according to local conditions.