中国城镇人口年龄结构预测

近年来，由于计划生育政策的实施，我国加速步入了老龄化社会，人口老龄化的快速到来给我国养老保险体系带来了越来越大的挑战，科学准确的对我国城镇人口年龄结构进行预测，有利于及时调整养老保险体系以应对老龄化带来的冲击。本文基于离散灰色系统模型，分别对我国城镇劳动人口和老年人口进行预测，然后计算得到老年抚养比，并针对我国的老龄化现状对我国的养老保险体系的建立提供一些政策性的意见和建议。

The Estimation of Chinese Urban Population Structure

China step into aging society owning to the implement of Family Planning Policy. The fast growing of aging brings numerous challenges to China endowment insurance system, therefore accurate estimation of urban population structure is of great importance. Base on a discrete grey model, this study estimate urban labor population and aging population separately, then calculate aged-dependency ratio, and finally put forward suggestions for policies in allusion to the aging society actuality.