基于灰色马尔可夫模型的北京市文化消费预测

为了把握文化消费的未来走向，拉动文化消费增长，使用GM（1,1）模型和马尔可夫模型相结合的灰色马尔可夫模型，对北京市2008—2018年文化消费支出数据进行建模，得到 2019—2023 年的北京市文化消费预测值。结果表明：灰色马尔可夫模型有效改善GM（1，1）模型预测波动数据效果不理想的缺点，提升了模型的预测精度。受疫情影响，2020年北京市文化消费下降35.6%，2021—2023年将呈现持续增长趋势。根据预测结果，对拉动文化消费增长点提出合理建议。

Prediction of Beijing Cultural Consumption Based on Grey Markov Model

In order to grasp the future trend of cultural consumption and promote the growth of cultural consumption, the gray Markov model combining GM (1,1) model and Markov model are used to predict the cultural consumption expenditure data of Beijing from 2008 to 2018, and the predicted value of cultural consumption of Beijing from 2019 to 2023 is obtained. The results show that the grey Markov model can effectively improve the poor performance of GM (1,1) model in forecasting volatility data, and improve the prediction accuracy of the model. Affected by the epidemic, cultural consumption in Beijing decreased by 35.6% in 2020, which will show a continuous growth trend from 2021 to 2023. Based on the forecast results, reasonable suggestions are put forward to promote the growth point of cultural consumption.