增信服务还是腐蚀效应:论金融科技等新兴产业发展过程中的风险信号

提出行业性风险暴发的"腐蚀效应"理论,即存在着一种特殊的行业风险暴发过程:行业中各个企业的倒闭是沿着企业的资质链从低到高的顺序发生的.该过程的存在得到了数据回归证实.对于科技金融等新兴行业,警惕和积极防范腐蚀效应,对防范行业性风险具有重要意义.对于客户信任高度依赖的新兴行业,如金融科技等,最容易出现腐蚀效应.因此,在一度高速膨胀的网络贷款领域出现腐蚀效应具有一定必然性."腐蚀效应"的存在也否定了当前把网络贷款行业大面积爆雷的原因归咎于其开展"增信服务"的普遍观点,真正引发风险的原因是网络贷款行业中的企业资质参差不齐和无序竞争造成的无谓成本的大幅增加.从政府对行业的管理视角来看,在促进行业发展时不忘记防范风险十分重要.这在实质上是对制度-制度接口的设计问题.因此应当以制度设计理论来指导防范风险政策的制定,才能取得更好的效果.

Eredit Enhancement or Erosion Effect:Discussion on Risk Signals and Lessons in the Development Process of Emerging Industries such as Fintech

The theory of "erosion effect" of risk outbreak is put forward, and it found that the process of risk outbreak is from low to high along the qualification chain, and this process is confirmed by data regression analysis.For emerging industries such as Fintech, vigilance and active prevention of erosion effect is of great significance. Emerging industries that are highly dependent on customer trust, such as fintech, are most likely to have a "erosion effect".Therefore, the erosion effect emerged inevitably in the once rapidly expanding network loan field. The existence of "erosion effect" also negates the current widespread view that the risk outbreak of peer to peer loans is attributed to their "credit enhancement service", and the real cause of risk breakout is the uneven qualification of the enterprises.From the perspective of the government''s management of the industry, it is important to keep risk prevention in mind when promoting the development of the industry.In essence, this is the design of the institution-institution interface, so the institution design theory should be used to guide the formulation of risk prevention policies, so as to achieve better results.