我国居民消费的平滑性研究——基于“相关性UC模型”的实证

我国居民消费的平滑性是扩大内需的政策产生效果的一个障碍。本文利用"相关性UC模型"来研究收入-消费关系,试图利用该模型中消费、总收入和持久收入之间新息的相关性来验证我国居民消费行为更符合哪一种消费行为理论。最后实证结果说明,凯恩斯主义消费理论,习惯形成理论和预防性储蓄,持久收入假说都不能完美的解释我国居民的消费行为。相对来说,其消费行为更接近于持久收入理论。

Research on Consumption Smoothing of Chinese Resident——Empirical study based on "related Unobservable Component model"

The smoothness of the consumer in China is an obstacle to the policy of expanding domestic demanding have an effect. In this paper, the related UC model to study the Income- consumption relations, in an attempt to verify the model between consumption, income and permanent income in the interest of consumer behavior more in line with what kind of consumer behavior theory. The last empirical results indicate that the Keynesian Theory of Consumption, habit formation theory and precautionary savings, the permanent income hypothesis cannot be perfect to explain the consumption behavior of Chinese residents. Relatively speaking, their consumption behaviors are closer to the permanent income theory.