老龄化与碳排放：消费效应还是生产效应？——基于2002-2017年中国省级面板数据的实证研究

人口老龄化是经济增长的一大阻碍,它对碳排放的影响是做出环境政策抉择的关键因素.以中国2002—2017年的省级面板数据为研究样本,从理论与实证两个层面分析人口老龄化与碳排放的关系及影响机制.一方面,构建包含碳排放的世代交叠模型(overlapping generations,OLG),发现老龄化主要通过消费效应和生产效应两个路径对碳排放产生影响;另一方面,从实证层面发现老龄化与碳排放之间存在倒"U"形关系,而且消费效应在人口老龄化与碳排放的关系中起到部分中介作用,生产效应的影响则不显著.

Aging and Carbon Emissions:Consumption Effect or Production Effect? Emprical study based on China's provincial panel data during 2002 to 2017

Population aging, as a major obstacle to economic growth, its impact on carbon emissions is a key factor in making environmental policy decisions in the context of aging. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2002 to 2017, analyses the relationship between population aging and carbon emissions from both theoretical and empirical levels, as well as its impact path. On the one hand, this paper builds an overlapping generations (OLG) model, which includes carbon emissions. From the theoretical model, aging mainly affects carbon emissions through two paths: consumption effect and production effect. On the other hand, this paper finds that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between aging and carbon emissions, and the mediating effect shows that the consumption effect plays a part of the mediating role in the relationship between population aging and carbon emissions, while the impact of production effect is not significant.