基于ARIMA中国旅游外汇收入2004-2015年的时间序列模型

应用季节调整以及ARIMA时间序列模型对中国2004年1月-2015年5月的旅游外汇收入进行研究分析，并对2015年6月-12月的旅游外汇收入进行预测。研究结果显示，2004-2014年的中国旅游外汇收入呈不断增加趋势，且月度数据具有明显的季节性，10月旅游外汇收入最高，2月最低。中国旅游外汇收入11年来虽然呈增加趋势，但发展趋势缓慢。2015年6月-12月的旅游外汇收入仍呈不断增加趋势。并为快速发展中国国际旅游提出建议措施：确保旅游安全生产，健全旅游法规，实现旅游业可持续发展等。

ARIMA-Based China International Tourism Receipts of the Time Series Model During 2004-2015

In this paper, the seasonal adjustment and ARIMA time series model is used to analyze the tourism foreign exchange earnings of China from January to May during 2004 -2015, and forecast the China international tourism receipts from June to December. The results show that China international tourism receipts is increasing from 2004-2014, and the monthly data has obvious seasonal, October tourism foreign exchange income is the highest, the lowest in February. Although China international tourism receipts in 11 years has increased, but the trend of development is slow. China international tourism receipts is still increasing trend from June to December. And for the rapid development of China's international tourism proposed measures: to ensure the safety of the production, improve the tourism laws and regulations, to achieve sustainable development of tourism, etc.