山东农村劳动力转移及影响因素分析

利用1978—2021年山东省统计年鉴数据，运用灰色预测模型与主成分分析法对山东省农村劳动力转移潜力进行预测并分析其影响因素。结果表明，山东省农村劳动力转移人数呈逐年下降趋势，预计到2030年农村劳动力将完成转移，但在2030年之前，农村剩余劳动力仍有潜力可挖。因此，需要从提高农村劳动力自身素质、规范劳动力就业市场、发展农业现代化、发挥好政府指导帮扶作用4个方面挖掘农村劳动力转移潜力，实现山东省经济社会高质量发展。

Analysis of Rural Labor Transfer and Its Influencing Factors in Shandong Province

Based on the data of Shandong Provincial Statistical Yearbook from 2001 to 2021, the grey prediction model and principal component analysis are used to predict the rural labor transfer potential of Shandong Province and analyze its influencing factors. The results show that the number of rural labor transfer in Shandong Province has been decreasing year by year. It is expected that the transfer of rural labor force will be completed by 2030, but there is still potential for rural surplus labor force to be tapped before 2030. Therefore, it is necessary to tap the transfer potential of rural labor force from four aspects: improving the quality of rural labor force itself, standardizing the labor market, developing agricultural modernization, and giving full play to the guiding and helping role of the government, so as to realize the high-quality economic and social development of Shandong Province.