技术成熟与技术风险评估方法在我国的适用性研究

一些具有战略性和前瞻性的国防重大科技工程，存在较大的技术和管理风险，因此很有必要在工程研制过程中引入先进的风险管理理念，实施科学的风险管理。我国目前所采用的技术风险管理手段比较单一，实施成本较高，所以，如何找到一种适合我国现状的，合理有效的风险管理手段是十分必要的。对此，文章引用NASA的一种技术成熟度与技术风险相结合的方法，结合我国国防重大科技工程特点分析以技术成熟度(TRL)、研发困难度(R&D3)、技术需求值(TNV)三个因素构建的风险矩阵。利用这三个要素构成的风险矩阵可以非常直观的衡量出工程中各项技术的发展现状，了解它们与最终成熟状态之间的差距，确定它们在研发阶段的困难度和重要性，以此加强技术状态和发展规划管理，帮助进度和经费管理。在文章最后作者分析了在我国重大国防科技工程中实施TRRA评价方法的作用和必要性，并提出了在我国试用的思考和建议。

The Application of Technology Readiness and Technical Risk Assessment in China

As potential technical and management risks exist in some major strategic and prospective national defense projects, it is necessary to introduce advanced risk management concept in the process of project development and implement scientific risk management. At present the domestic risk management tools lack variety and are costing to implement, so it is of great necessity to find an effective risk management tool suitable for China's current situation. On this issue, a method combining technical maturity and risk matrix is presented in this paper, to analyze the risk matrix constructed by TRL, R&D3 and TNV. Risk matrix based on the three elements can be very intuitive to measure the current situation of the development of the engineering techniques and the gap between them and their final maturity state, and determine the degree of difficulty and importance so as to improve the techniques, and enhance the development planning and management and the progress and expenditure management. At the end of the paper, the author analyzes the necessity and the role of TRRA evaluation method in the implementation of major national defense science and Engineering in our country, and puts forward the thoughts and suggestions for trial.