房价波动与制造业升级:基于省际面板数据的空间计量分析

利用2007-2016年中国29个省市区的相关数据,分析房地产价格和制造业产业升级在中国各个省市区的分布格局和空间上的相互依赖性。基于邻接权重矩阵构建空间滞后模型和空间误差模型,分析房价波动对中国制造业产业升级的影响。基于上述研究,得到四个方面的结论:一是通过Moran's I指数和Moran's I散点图证明了中国房价水平和制造业产业升级存在显著的空间相关性,制造业具有高水平区域集中、低水平区域聚集的特点;二是中国房地产价格与制造业产业升级呈倒U型库兹涅茨曲线关系,也就是说房价波动对制造业产业升级同时具有正效应和负效应;三是从整体上看,现阶段省域间相对房价升高对制造业低端技术产业产生挤出效应,对制造业高端技术产业发展产生促进作用,相对房价升高带动了制造业产业升级;四是在北京和上海,由于房价与制造业产业升级两者之间的关系已经跨入倒U型曲线的右边,所以要有效控制房价上涨,以免制造业产业升级受到抑制。

House Price Volatility and Manufacturing Upgrade:Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

This paper uses the relevant data of 29 provinces and municipalities in China from 2007 to 2016 to analyze the distribution pattern of real estate prices and manufacturing industry upgrades in various provinces and municipalities and their spatial interdependence in China.Based on the adjacency weight matrix,a spatial lag model and a spatial error model are constructed to analyze the impact of housing price fluctuations on the upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry.On the basis of the above research,four conclusions are drawn:Firstly,through Moran’s I index and Moran’s I scatter plot,it proves that there is a significant spatial correlation between China’s housing price level and manufacturing industry upgrading.The manufacturing industry has the characteristics of high level regional concentration and low level regional concentration.Secondly,China’s real estate prices and manufacturing industry upgrades have inverted U-Kuznets curve relationship,which means that housing price fluctuations have positive and negative effects on manufacturing industry upgrades.Thirdly,the overall rise in relative housing prices between provinces at this stage has an extrusion effect on the low-end technology industry of manufacturing,and promotes the development of high-end technology industries in manufacturing.The increase in relative housing prices has driven the upgrade in manufacturing industry.Fourthly,in Beijing and Shanghai,the relationship between housing prices and manufacturing industry upgrades has already entered the right side of the inverted U-shaped curve.Therefore,it is necessary to effectively control the rise in housing prices to prevent the suppression of industrial upgrading of the manufacturing industry.