日元升值与人民币升值的比较分析

人们通常会将中国的现实汇率升值与20世纪80年代中期日元施压升值联系起来。从长期来看，人民币升值是调整国内经济与国际经济秩序的关系的需要，不能简单认为是西方国家的“阴谋”。中国必须采取措施解决国际和匐内的经济失衡问题——国际收支的双顺差与过度投资而消费不足。但人民币兑美元升值不能一步到位，一方面是一次性大幅升值将沉重打击出口产业及就业，另一方面存在汇率走势逆转的可能性。运用从紧货币政策强行控制通货膨胀是难以达到理想效果的，因为引发通货膨胀的很大一部分原因在于美元的泛滥，控制增发货币的闸口并不完全在中国人氏银行掌握之中。要从根本上解决消费不足问题，对资本账户实施非对称的开放。

Appreciation of RMB and YEN: A Comparative Analysis

It is a popular viewpoint to compare the current appreciation of RMB with that of YEN in the 1980s.In the long run,appreciation of RMB meets the needs of the adjustment of domestic economy as well as international economic relationship.It is far less sufficient to treat it as a conspiracy of Western countries.Measures should be taken to deal with both external and internal imbalances,namely the dual BOP surplus and the combination of excessive investment and deficient consumption.However,a sharp appreciation of RMB immediately towards the equilibrium value may seriously hurt the exporting industries and its employment,and may be followed by a reversal.Moreover,tight monetary policies are ineffective because the money supply by People's Bank of China is at least partially passive when Dollar gluts.An asymmetric deregulation on capital account is proposed to increase domestic consumption.