基于MRIO模型的中国对外贸易隐含碳及排放责任研究

国际贸易中的隐含碳对全球碳排放责任的界定和气候政策的制定有重要的影响。由于生产技术差异对国际贸易模式有很大影响,在经济全球化背景下,对外贸易隐含碳的测算需要考虑贸易伙伴生产技术水平和能源结构之间的差异。本文建立多区域投入产出模型测算中国对外贸易隐含碳并比较其生产和消费排放责任后发现,中国对外贸易隐含碳净出口占中国碳排放的11.77%～19.93%,中国的生产碳排放从1995年的29.2亿吨增加到2009年的70.8亿吨,而消费碳排放在1995年和2009年分别只有24.7亿吨和61.8亿吨。文章进而采用结构分解分析和碳排放贸易条件解释这一现象,并将其具体到主要贸易伙伴,从而证明目前的国际碳排放核算体系引起了消费和全球生产系统的分离。经过贸易调整后的基于消费的碳排放核算体系不仅可为减排责任的分担提供一个新途径,而且可为利用贸易政策实现减排提供新的思路。

China's Emission Responsibility and Trade-embodied Emissions: a MRIO Approach

The CO 2 emissions embodied in international trade have significant impact on climate change and related policy issues.Active recent interest has been given to quantifying the environmental impacts of international trade for China due to it being the world's largest CO 2 emitter and having large recent growth in international trade.Developing a framework based on multiregional input-output approach,the paper analyzes the CO 2 emissions embodied in China's international trade and compares two inventories to account the international emission responsibility of China from 1995 to 2009.It finds that China's CO 2 emissions balance has increased from 450Mt in 1995 to 1123Mt in 2007 and decreased to 902Mt in 2009.China's production-based emissions were 2923Mt in 1995 and increased to 7083Mt in 2009,while its consumption-based emissions were approximately 2473Mt in 1995 and 6182Mt in 2009.The term of trade on CO 2 emission used to explain one cause of the result.By applying structural decomposition analysis on a global environmentally extended MRIO model,the paper quantified the drive behind the change of the emissions embodied in China's international trade.Then,the term of trade on CO 2 emission used to explain one cause of the result.Besides,the CO 2 emissions balance by trade partners was also compared.The results show that international trade had significant impact on China's CO 2 emissions.It suggests that national emission account system should consider the emissions transfer via international trade to ensure the effect of climate policies.