首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      

人民币升值、热钱流入与房价的关系——基于趋势性和波动性的研究
引用本文:赵文胜,张屹山,赵杨.人民币升值、热钱流入与房价的关系——基于趋势性和波动性的研究[J].世界经济研究,2011(5).
作者姓名:赵文胜  张屹山  赵杨
作者单位:吉林大学商学院
基金项目:教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大课题项目(09JJD790017)的资助
摘    要:本文对热钱流入与我国房价之间的相互关系和作用机制做出了分析。首先,验证了热钱流入规模与房屋销售价格指数之间的关联;然后,考虑到房价上涨包含持久性和暂时性两种类型,利用HP滤波方法将其分解成趋势成分和波动成分,进一步研究热钱和房价之间的相互作用机制。研究结果表明,房价上涨能够引起热钱流入,反过来热钱流入能够引起房价上涨;对于其相互作用机制,我们认为,房价上涨的趋势引起热钱流入,而热钱流入引起房价上涨的波动。这意味着,我国应该加强监测房价波动,稳定房价上涨趋势,以防止由此引起热钱流入进而对房价波动产生影响,最终避免对宏观经济产生冲击。

关 键 词:热钱  房价  人民币升值  滤波

An Analysis of the Relationship of RMB Appreciation,Hot Money Inflow and House Price:Trends and Fluctuations
Zhao Wensheng,Zhang Yishan,Zhao Yang.An Analysis of the Relationship of RMB Appreciation,Hot Money Inflow and House Price:Trends and Fluctuations[J].World Economy Study,2011(5).
Authors:Zhao Wensheng  Zhang Yishan  Zhao Yang
Institution:Zhao Wensheng Zhang Yishan Zhao Yang
Abstract:We have in this paper analyzed the relationship and the interaction mechanisms between the hot money inflow and house price.After validating their relationship,considering that house price′s rise includes the permanent and temporary rise,we divide it into two,the trend component and fluctuation component,to study their interaction mechanisms.The result demonstrates that the hot money inflow and the house price rise are reinforced each other.The mechanism is that the trend component can make the hot money flow into home market which in turn results in the fluctuation of house price.This means that measuring the house price fluctuation and stabilizing the trend of rise can reduce the effect of hot money inflow on the house price fluctuation and the impact on the macro-economy.
Keywords:
本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录!
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号