资本账户开放的门槛效应及路径研究

文章基于70个国家面板数据,实证检验了开放资本账户的增长效应。研究结果表明,资本账户开放具有国别差异,高收入国家开放资本账户的增长效应显著大于中低收入国家。在引入制度质量、货币政策、财政政策、对外开放度和金融发展5个初始条件指标建立动态门槛模型,研究发现,资本账户开放对经济增长的影响是非线性的,初始条件较低时资本账户开放不利于经济增长,当初始条件越过门槛值后,资本账户开放表现出积极的增长效应。结合跨境资本异质性和门槛效应,进一步发现开放直接投资的门槛最低,经济效应最大;开放债务投资的门槛最高,经济效应最小;开放股权投资的门槛效应介于前二者之间。经验分析为中国资本账户开放条件以及路径提供了参考。

Research on Threshold Effect and Path of Capital Account Liberalization

Based on the panel data of 70 countries,this paper empirically tests the growth effect of capital account liberalization.The results show that the capital account liberalization has country-by-country differences,and the growth effect of capital account liberalization in high-income countries is significantly greater than that in low-and middle-income countries.On this basis,a dynamic threshold model is established by introducing five initial condition indicators:institution quality,monetary policy,fiscal policy,trade openness and financial development.The study finds that the impact of capital account liberalization on economic growth is non-linear.When the initial condition is low,capital account liberalization is not conducive to economic growth.When the initial condition crosses the threshold,capital account liberalization shows a positive growth effect.Combining the heterogeneity of cross-border capital and threshold effect,we find that the threshold for liberalizing direct investment is the lowest and the economic effect is the largest.The threshold for liberalizing debt investment is the highest and the economic effect is the smallest.The threshold effect of liberalizing equity investment is between the first two.The empirical analysis provides a reference for China’s capital account liberalization conditions and paths.