中国制造业出口贸易的技术结构分布及其国际比较

借鉴Lall(2000)及OECD(2008)的方法,利用1995～2006年三位数《标准国际贸易分类》数据,本文分析了中国制造业出口贸易的技术结构分布,并与世界主要国家和地区进行了比较。研究发现:(1)从贸易统计上看,中国制造业出口的技术结构已经由低技术制造业转向了高技术制造业。(2)与日本、美国和德国等世界主要发达国家以汽车、化工和机械等中技术制成品出口为主不同,中国的出口主要集中在低技术制成品和高技术制成品,其中低技术制成品以纺织、皮革和鞋类为主,而高技术制成品则以信息和通信技术产品为主。(3)中国出口贸易的技术结构与发展中经济体更为相似,特别是向亚洲新兴工业经济体不断趋同;与发达经济体的差异虽然较大,但正迅速向其趋同。由于中国高技术产品的出口贸易主要依靠外资企业和加工贸易,中国出口贸易的技术结构分布和贸易竞争力可能被夸大了。

The Technological Structure of Chinese Manufacturing Exports and Its International Comparison

Based on the method developed by Lall(2000) and OECD(2008),this paper measures the technological structure of Chinese manufacturing exports,and compares it with the main countries or regions in the world,by using the trade data(SITC 3.0) from 1995 to 2006.The results show that: Firstly,the commercial trade and classification data indicates that China′s manufacturing export structure has been transforming from low-technology industries to high-technology industries.Secondly,Chinese exports mainly concentrate on the low-technology industries and high-technology industries.Exports of the low-technology industries focus on textiles,leathers and shoes;Exports of the high-technology industries are mainly information and communication technology products.Differing from China,exports of the main developed countries,such as Japan,USA,and Germany,focus on medium-technology manufacturing products,including automobiles,chemistry and machines.Thirdly,the technological structure of Chinese exports is more similar with the developing countries than the developed countries,specially converging to the Asian newly industrialized countries.The technological structure of Chinese exports is converging to the developed countries,although being very different from it.Exports of Chinese high-technology industries depend mainly on the foreign-invested enterprises and processing trade,which maybe exaggerate the technological structure and competitiveness of Chinese exports.