贸易模式与不完全汇率传递——基于扩展的古诺模型的解释

本文采用一个扩展的古诺模型分析证明了贸易模式与不完全汇率传递的关系。首先,本文从破解人民币升值背景下中国贸易规模和贸易顺差仍持续增长这一谜题出发,分析了中国贸易模式和出口结构特征,描述了中国在国际生产价值链上的角色,阐述了垂直型产业内模式和中间产品占比较大的贸易结构对人民币汇率传递水平的影响。其次,对Dornbusch采用的古诺模型进行拓展,引入贸易模式变量,构建了一个局部均衡的理论模型。模型分析表明,产业市场结构、本国供应商的市场地位和贸易模式是影响出口价格的汇率传递水平的重要因素。最后,根据模型分析结论,提出相应的政策建议。

Trade Patterns and Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-through:Explanations based on an Extended Cournot Model

In this paper,we demonstrated the relationship between trade patterns and incomplete exchange rate pass-through based on an extended Cournot model. First of all,to solve a puzzle that China′s trade volume and surplus continued to increase in size in the context of RMB appreciation,this paper analyzed China′s trade patterns,export structure,and its role played in the international production value chain. We look into the effects of the vertical intra-industry trade patterns and export structure that intermediate goods account for a larger proportion on the size of RMB exchange rate pass-through;Secondly,we extended the Cournot model that have been used by Dornbusch,via introduced trade patterns variable.The model analysis shows that industry market structure,market position of domestic suppliers and trade patterns had significant effects on the size of exchange rate pass-through into export prices. Finally,we came to conclusions and proposed some appropriate policy recommendations.