ECFA的建立与海峡两岸垂直分工模式

通过计算中国大陆加入WTO以来中国大陆出口的垂直专业化比率,以及东亚各经济体的中间产品的来料比率及其贡献,本文发现,无论是在出口总量上,还是在台湾地区出口到中国大陆的主要产品,其对中国大陆垂直专业化的贡献程度从2002年以来一直在下降。这表明中国大陆不断深化的开放并没有促进海峡两岸产业链的进一步深化,相反,受此前台湾的"戒急用忍"政策所至,海峡两岸产业互补性垂直分工减弱。进一步采用GTAP模型模拟中国大陆参与东亚区域贸易自由化的各种不同场景,结果显示,通过ECFA参与中国大陆区域贸易自由化进程的三种模式均有利于提高台湾来料对大陆出口垂直专业化的贡献度,有利于台湾走出在东亚分工体系中被边缘化的困境,优化海峡两岸产业垂直分工体系。反之,如果中国大陆率先与其他东亚国家实现全面贸易自由化,会给两岸产业垂直分工模式带来一定的负面影响。

ECFA Establishment and the Mode of Vertical Division Across the Taiwan Strait

By calculating the export vertical specialization rates of the Chinese mainland after accessing to WTO,and the incoming rate and contribution of both the intermediate and semi-manufactured products in East Asia economies,this paper finds that either the gross volume of exports or the main products of Taiwan exported to Chinese mainland have contributed less and less to the vertical specialization of the Chinese mainland since 2002.This demonstrates that deepening reform and opening up of China has not promoted further deepening of industry chains across the Strait,but rather affected by the policy of "overcome impetuosity and exercise patience" in Taiwan,resulting in stagnation tendency.Through further simulation of Chinese mainland participating in trade liberalization of East Asia by using the GTAP model,the conclusion revealed that with ECFA,all of the three models of Taiwan participating in the process of trade liberalization of China are favorable to increase the contribution of incoming materials of Taiwan to export vertical specialization of the mainland,facilitating Taiwan to disembarrass itself.On the contrary,if Chinese mainland takes its initiative to achieve overall trade liberalization with other East Asian economies,it will affect the model of industry vertical specialization across the Strait in a negative way to some extent.