经济全球化背景下中国与德国的贸易发展研究——基于贸易竞争性和互补性的实证分析

本文运用出口相似度指数测算了1999～2008年间中国与德国在欧盟15国市场和在世界市场细分商品上的竞争性,结果表明:虽然从变化趋势来看,中国与德国在欧盟15国市场上的贸易竞争性在逐渐下降,但是从绝对值来看中国与德国的贸易竞争性仍然比较激烈。在世界市场上,中国和德国在燃料、机器和运输设备以及其他制成品三类商品上都是竞争程度上升。运用显性比较优势指数测算了中国和德国的总体以及细分商品的比较优势,结果表明:中国从90年代中期以来出口产品结构中劳动密集型产品和资源密集型产品的地位已经趋于稳定,资本和技术密集型产品的地位开始上升,德国则在资本技术密集型产品上具有明显的比较优势。本文还运用贸易互补指数测算了中国和德国的贸易互补性,结果表明,中国和德国的贸易潜力是巨大的。文章最后根据分析提出发展中国与德国贸易的政策建议。

Trade Development between China and Germany under the Economic Globalization Background:An Empirical Study based on the Trade Complementarity and Trade Competence

Export similarity index is used to study the trade competence between China and Germany in the EU15 market and world market between 1999～2008.The result shows that the trade competence between China and Germany decreased in EU15 market,but the trade competence is still relatively strong.In the world market,the trade competence between China and Germany in fuel,machines,transportation equipments and other manufactured articles increased.RCA index is used to analyze the total and individual commodities′trade comparative advantages between China and Germany.The result shows that China has trade comparative advantages in labor and resource intensive goods since 1990s and the trade comparative advantages of capital and techniques intensive goods has increased.The trade comparative advantages of Germany in capital and techniques intensive goods are very obvious.Trade complementarity index is used to analyze the trade Complementarity between China and Germany.The result shows that China and Germany has great potential in trade.Then at last,we put forward some suggestions for promoting the trade relationship between China and Germany.