对发展中国家的贸易与美国制造业的就业变动

本文利用1997～2006年美国制造业的面板数据,从静态和动态的角度实证检验了美国制造业与发展中国家的进、出口贸易对美国制造业就业总量的影响。估计结果表明,考虑进、出口贸易对技术创新的驱动作用以后,进、出口贸易对就业的影响与理论预期存在不一致性,进口贸易不仅没有通过替代国内生产而减少劳动密集制造部门对劳动力的需求,反而促进了该部门的就业增长;出口贸易也没有通过产出扩大效应而增加劳动密集制造部门对劳动力的需求,出口贸易对就业的促进效应仅仅体现在技术密集制造部门。由于美国劳动力市场中存在价格效应、规模效应和劳动力需求的趋势效应,与发展中国家的进、出口贸易对美国制造业就业的影响呈现明显的滞后性和动态调整特征。

Trade with Developing Countries and the Change of Employment in U.S. Manufacturing

This paper investigates the impact of trade with developing countries on employment in U.S.manufacturing,using data for a panel of 21 manufacturing industries over the 1997～2006 period.The results show that,if we consider the technology innovation effect of trade,import from developing countries does not decrease the demand of labour through cutting down domestic product, but raises the rate of employment in U.S.manufacturingj,while export to developing countries does not increase the labour demand in labour-intensive sector of U.S.manufacturing through expanding domestic product.It only raises the rate of employment in technology-intensive sector of U.S.manufacturing.Since there are price effect,scale effect,and labour demand trend effect in U.S.labour market,the impact of the trade with developing countries on the employment of U.S.manufacturing displays the features of time lag and dynamics.