中国出口复杂度的测度与影响因素分析

本文采用1996～2006年期间细分至HS-10位数编码分类的商品贸易数据分别测度了中国产品层面和国家层面的出口复杂度,考察了不同投资贸易类型出口产品复杂度的演化趋势,并引入金融发展水平指标对我国国家层面出口复杂度的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果显示,1996～2006年间,我国出口产品结构虽然从行业层面而言是逐步改善与提升的,但加工贸易类出口产品的出口复杂度高于非加工贸易类出口产品的出口复杂度,并且国内投资的加工贸易产品为最主要的推动力;就1996～2006年而言,我国出口复杂度的主要推动因素仍为非熟练劳动力和价格,但价格主导的影响机制正逐渐向利率主导的影响机制转化。

Study on the Measurement and Influential Factors of China's Export Sophistication

This paper adopted highly disaggregate HS-10 digit commodity trade data between 1996 and 2006 to measure and analyze China′s product-level and national-level exports sophistication.It also categorized the export products according to the trade-investment modes and analyzed the tendency of their export sophistication.Finally,It introduced the index of financial development into the influential factors of China′s exports nation-level sophistication.The results show that: between 1996 and 2006 the product structure of China′s exports had gradually improved from an industrial aspect,but the export sophistication of processing trade(PT) products is higher than that of non-processing trade(NPT) products.Moreover,domestic-invest processing trade(DIPT) products are the primary driving force.During the period from1996 to 2006,the main driving forces of China′s export sophistication were unskilled labor force and prices.However,the price-directed influential mechanism is transforming into inte-rest-rate-directed influential mechanism.