台海两岸ICT制造业的贸易模式及其决定因素分析

本文基于中国台湾1993～2010年的贸易数据对台海两岸信息通信科技(ICT)制造业最终产品和零部件贸易模式进行解析,研究结果显示:台海两岸ICT制造业的贸易模式逐步从20世纪90年代以产业间贸易为主转变为21世纪以产业内贸易为主,这一点在零部件贸易中表现得尤为突出;无论是最终产品还是零部件,台海两岸ICT产品产业内贸易都以垂直产业内贸易为主,并且零部件产业内贸易中垂直产业内贸易所占比重明显高于最终产品;进一步分析ICT产品垂直产业内贸易中台湾的相对技术优势发现,无论是在最终产品还是零部件垂直产业内贸易中,台湾对大陆出口的高技术含量产品均占据优势份额且呈迅速上涨趋势。台海两岸ICT制造业的产业内贸易模式的实证检验表明,两岸ICT零部件的产业内贸易主要是由驱动ICT全球性生产网络发展的垂直专业分工链条的分解所导致,而ICT最终产品的产业内贸易则主要是由市场规模等需求性因素所导致。

Trade Patterns and the Determinants in ICT Manufacturing across the Taiwan Strait

Based on the trade data of HS code of Taiwan from 1993 to 2010,this paper decomposed the trade patterns of finished products and parts and components in Information Communication Technology(ICT) manufacturing across the Taiwan Strait.The results of the study showed that the trade pattern of ICT manufacturing across the Taiwan strait has changed gradually in the past two decades,with inter-industry trade as the main trade pattern during 1990s,while in 21st century trade pattern primarily dominated by intra-industry trade,especially in components and parts product.The intra-industry trade in ICT manufacturing is dominated by vertical intra-industry trade(VIIT) not only in finished products but also in parts and components,and the proportions of VIIT in intra-industry trade of parts and components are significantly higher than that of finished products.We further found the exports of high-tech ICT products(ie.with export prices higher than import prices) from Taiwan to the Mainland of China remained significant share of the VIIT and increased rapidly.The empirical test of the determinants of ICT intra-industry trade pattern showed that the ICT intra-industry trade of parts and components mainly resulted from the value-added chain decomposition of vertical specialization across the Taiwan Strait,while ICT intra-industry trade of the finished products were mainly caused by demand factors.