金融发展不平衡与全球贸易失衡——基于跨时贸易模型的研究

本文从全球金融发展不平衡的视角研究全球贸易失衡,建立一个流动性约束的跨时贸易模型,证明了金融发展差异、消费者跨期消费能力与贸易余额之间的关系。通过选取86个国家1990～2009年的面板数据实证研究发现,金融市场规模、金融市场活力等金融发展指标与贸易余额有着显著的负相关关系。全球贸易失衡问题的解决必须从根本上缩小各国金融发展的差异,发展新兴市场国家的本土金融市场,改变美国在全球金融体系中的主导和支配地位,构建多元化的国际金融体系。

Imbalance between Financial Development and Global Trade:A Study based on Intertemporal Trade Model

This paper investigates global trade imbalance from the perspective of differences in the level of financial development among countries,and establishes an intertemporal trade model with liquidity constraints and proves that difference in financial development is related with ability of intertemporal consuming and trade balance.The empirical research by the panel data of 86 countries from 1990~2009 finds that the scale and activity of financial market have negative correlation with trade balance.To solve the problem of global trade imbalance should narrow the gap in financial development,foster native financial market in emerging countries and change the dominant role played by US in global financial system.