基于SAM的价格敏感性行业甄别及其传递路径分析

本文运用社会核算矩阵价格乘数理论构建价格敏感性指标,将其应用于甄别对价格波动更敏感且价格影响辐射更广的行业或生产要素,并探讨了价格冲击的具体传递路径.根据价格前向与后向联系的相对大小,本文将各行业或要素分为价格敏感型、价格波动诱因型、价格不敏感型和易受价格波动影响型四类.实证表明,不同行业或要素的价格敏感性存在显著差异;非熟练劳动力对行业的价格传递主要是通过直接路径发生作用,而熟练劳动力、资本、土地的价格传递则存在直接或间接路径等多种渠道.本文研究结论可为有针对性地依据价格敏感性与传递路径来制定通胀宏观调控政策提供参考.

Analysis of Price Sensitivity Industry and Its Transmission Path Based on SAM

Using SAM price multiplier theory, this paper constructs price sensitivity index to identify sensitive accounts which are more vulnerable to price shock or exert greater impact on the overall economy. Transmission mechanism of price shock is also examined using structural path analysis. Based on price forward and backward linkage, industries or production factors are divided into four categories, namely price sensitive, inducement, insensitive and vulnerable type. The result shows that price sensitivity of various accounts are rather different. Direct path plays an important role for the impact of unskilled labor on industries, while indirect path is of equal importance to skilled labor, capital and land price transmission. Conclusions of this paper provide useful reference for anti - inflation policy formulation in a targeted manner.