汇率的不确定性、投资区位选择与公司内贸易

本文通过建立投资国一受资国一国际市场的三国框架，分三种投资区位的国际生产模式，就汇率冲击对垂直型FDI的区位选择和公司内贸易的影响进行分析。研究表明：（1）当区位成本优势不能抵消汇率不确定性导致的损失时，跨国企业将会调整投资区位决策，考虑撤资回母国；（2）当汇率相对波动幅度处于某一范围时，跨国企业具有较强烈的倾向将投资从原东道国转移到其引资竞争国；（3）汇率不确定性对出口价格的传导效应，具有不完全性特点。出口价格的汇率波动风险弹性取决于国际市场的外部竞争度以及子公司组装成本占国际市场该产品价格的比重；（4）汇率波动风险对公司内贸易余额的传导程度具有不确定性。随着汇率风险程度的逐步加大，其对公司内贸易余额的影响作用渐强，逐步从弱弹性转化为较强弹性的传导。

The Exchange Rate Uncertainty, Location-Decision of FDI and Intra-Industry Trade

The paper makes an analysis of exchange rate uncertainty effect on location-decision of FDI and intra-industry trade through establishing the three-nation framework. The model indicates that: (1) when comparative cost advantage can not counteract the expected profit loss induced by exchange rate uncertainty, the multinational company would consider divesting to its home country. (2) When the relative exchange rate is within some certain extent, the multinational company would incline to invest to the competitor one of host country. (3) The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on export price, like the pass-through effect of exchange rate to export price, lacks of elasticity. However, the direction is opposite. The elasticity lies on the ratio of subsidiary company’s value-added to the final product’s price, and the competitiveness of industry. (4) The influence of exchange rate uncertainty on intra-firm trade balance is indecisive. When the certain part of intra-industry trade balance exceeds two times of the uncertain part induced by exchange rate volatility, the pass-through elasticity is within (-1,0), known as incomplete pass-through effect. Under other two conditions as shown in the paper, the related pass-through effects are significant.