市场择机与目标资本结构对上市公司资本结构的影响-基于中国上市公司的实证研究

 本文利用1998年1月1日至2006年12月31日的沪深两市上市公司的面板数据，运用Tobit模型预测出目标资本结构，以此来检验我国股市的市场择机行为和影响资本结构的因素。实证结果表明在样本期内我国上市公司存在着市场择机行为，但是仅能持续三年左右，盈利能力、非债务税盾和公司规模等因素则通过影响目标资本结构来影响上市公司的资本结构，且这一影响是持续显著的。

Market t Market Timing and Target Capital Structure: Evidence from Chinese Stock Markets

This paper uses the Tobit model to predict the firms’ target capital structure, based on the financial data of IPO listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets during the year of 1998 to 2003, to examine the market timing behavior and the factors which influence the capital structure. Our evidence shows that the listed companies exist the market timing, but it have only lasted three years, the profitability, asset tangibility and the firms’ size influence the capital structure through the firms’ target capital structure, the influence of target capital structure is continued and notable.