房地产市场化改革与实体经济发展——兼论金融的调节作用

推动金融、房地产与实体经济均衡发展是畅通国内大循环,推动国内国际双循环的关键举措。文章借鉴樊纲等学者的市场化指数测度框架,构建了房地产行业的市场化指数,运用1999-2017年中国30个省市自治区的面板数据,以房地产为第一视角实证检验了房地产市场化改革、金融发展与实体经济三者之间的互动关系及内在机理。研究发现,房地产行业的市场化改革显著推动了实体经济的发展。金融在房地产拉动实体经济发展过程中发挥重要作用,总体上金融支持对房地产市场化改革驱动实体经济发展具有显著的正向调节效应,但这一正向调节效应在金融发达地区并不适用,金融发展水平越高反而抑制了房地产市场化改革对实体经济的拉动作用,且限购限贷等行政限制类政策无法从根本上扭转这一负向调节效应。文章的研究不仅为现有关于房地产与实体经济相关研究提供了新的分析视角,揭示了宏观经济"脱实向虚"风险的内在动因,更为进一步贯彻落实中央"房住不炒"定位,构建房地产市场平稳健康发展的长效机制提供了新的改革思路。

Real Estate Market Reform and Real Economy Development:On the Regulating Role of Finance

Promoting the balanced development of finance,real estate and the real economy is a key measure to smooth the domestic cycle and promote the domestic and international dual cycles.Based on the measurement framework of marketization index of Fan Gang and other scholars,this paper constructs the marketization index of the real estate industry,and empirically tests the interaction and internal mechanism among the real estate marketization reform,financial development and the development of the real economy from the first perspective of real estate by using the panel data of 30 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 1999 to 2017.The empirical results show that:the market-oriented reform of the real estate industry has significantly promoted the development of the real economy.Finance plays an important role in the process of real estate stimulating the development of the real economy.On the whole,financial support has a significant positive regulatory effect on the real economy driven by the real estate market-oriented reform,but this positive regulatory effect is not applicable in the financial developed areas.The higher the level of financial development,it inhibits the stimulating effect of the real estate market-oriented reform on the real economy.Moreover,administrative restriction policies such as purchase and loan restrictions can not fundamentally reverse this negative regulating effect.The research of this paper not only provides a new analytical perspective for the existing research on real estate and real economy,reveals the internal motivation of macroeconomic“from real to virtual”,but also provides a new reform idea for further implementing the central positioning of“housing should not be fired”and building a long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.