全球绿色发展格局变迁及其逻辑研究

文章借助重心转移模型,考察二十一世纪以来全球经济、资本、能源消耗和碳排放的流动格局。并基于非参数方法构建"资源-环境-经济"三维的绿色发展效率评价指标,探索和分析全球绿色发展的格局变迁及其内在逻辑。研究发现：（1）新世纪以来,全球能源消耗、资本和碳排放重心加速向亚洲内陆移动,但经济重心未能表现出同样的趋势;（2）全球绿色发展呈现出显著的区域差异化和动态分化特征,形成以欧美等发达国家单边推动,部分新兴国家掣肘的局面;（3）绿色发展、资源节约和碳减排与能源价格、能源结构显著正相关,与地区生态承载力负相关,与经济发展水平呈"U型"关系。样本区间内,金融危机对全球绿色发展产生强烈冲击。此外,一个有趣的发现是,海拔较低的地区绿色发展效率更高,且更加倾向于实施碳减排而非资源节约。

The Changes of Global Green Development Pattern and Its Inner Logic

To begin with, this thesis uses the gravity model to study the global flow pattern of economy, capital, energy consumption and carbon emissions since the beginning of the 21 st century. Then, it analyzes the current status, the change trend and the inner logic of green development pattern by a "resources-environment-economy" three-dimensional evaluation index of green development efficiency based on the nonparametric method. The result shows:(1)The center of gravity for capital, energy consumption and carbon emissions are speeding up to Inner Asia, but the center of gravity for economy fails to show the same trend; (2) Global green development shows obvious regional and dynamic differentiation, that developed countries like the United States and European countries promote it, on the contrary, some emerging countries hinder it. (3) In the sample interval, the financial crisis impacted on the green development of the whole world massively. An interesting discovery is that the lower altitude regions are more inclined to reducing carbon emission than saving resources.