中国家庭股市资产价值变动对居民消费的影响——来自CHFS的微观证据

近年来针对股市资产价值变动与消费关系的研究多采用宏观数据，难以揭示股市资产价值变动对居民消费影响的细节。为克服以上缺陷，文章利用中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据分析股市资产价值变动对中国居民消费的影响。实证结果表明：（1）股市资产价值变动对居民消费的影响总体较弱，其中市值变动的财富效应主要体现在改善性消费上，而对饮食等日常必须消费和奢侈品消费影响较小，这可能与我国居民的收入结构和投资方式有关；（2）随着年龄增长，居民的收入分布和资产配置倾向发生改变，股市资产价值变动对不同年龄居民消费的影响呈现先减小后增大的U型分布。研究结论揭示了股市资产价值变动对居民消费影响的分布特征，为今后股市改革方向提供了建议。

The Impact of Stock Asset Value Changes on Household Consumption in China: Evidence from CHFS

With a population of 1.4 billion, China is the largest single market in the world and has a unique advantage in consumption-driven economic growth. With China's economy entering a shift period of growth, investment and exports have declined to varying degrees. In this context, how to stimulate domestic demand by household consumption has attracted more and more attention. Thus, there have significant importance to study the influencing factors of consumption. Domestic research on wealth effect of stock market started relatively late, and there is still controversy on whether there is wealth effect in China. Li Zhenming (2001), Tang Shaoxiang et al. (2008) tested the wealth effect stock market and found that there is no wealth effect in China's stock market. Chen Qiang and Ye Azhong (2009) argue that China's stock market has a negative wealth effect, also known as the substitution effect, that is, rising stock prices lead to more assets into the stock market, thereby reducing consumption. Yet Hu Yonggang and Guo Changlin (2012), Zhou Xianyong (2017) study show that China's stock market has a significant wealth effect. Besides, previous studies have mostly explored the value of wealth effect from a macro perspective. The model lacks variables of economic and social indicators, as well as the impact of environmental system, research period and consumer culture differences,which makes it difficult to reveal the details of the impact of stock asset value changes on household consumption. In order to overcome the above shortcomings, this paper uses China Household Financial Survey (CHFS) data to analyze the impact of stock asset value changes on Chinese household consumption. In this paper, the author chose a sample of 6846 households covering both 2010 and 2012 from the survey. By analyzing data of consumptions, stock holding, other financial assets and controlling demographic characteristics, this paper finds that:(1) the impact of stock asset value changes on household consumption is generally weak, and the wealth effect of stock market value changes is mainly reflected in improving consumption, while it has little impact on daily necessities such as food and clothes and on luxury consumption, which may be related to the income structure and investment mode of Chinese residents; (2) With the growth of age, the income distribution and asset disposition tendency of residents change, and the impact of stock asset value changes on consumption of residents of different ages presents a U-shaped distribution that first decreases and then increases. The conclusion reveals the distribution characteristics of the impact of asset valuechanges on household consumption, which reflects that the household wealth is still not dominated by stocks. This is related to the current social stage. When the stock market wealth held by residents begin to rise gradually, the impact of stock market value changes on consumption will become more and more obvious. How can Chinese residents fully enjoy the wealth appreciation from the stock market, so as to play a pulling role of the stock market on consumption? On one hand, we should fully establish and improve the capital market system and information disclosure mechanism and perfect the investor protection mechanism. On the other hand, by opening up the stock market to international investors and allowing domestic residents to invest in the international stock market, the residents can diversify their portfolios and diversify the risks caused by over-concentration of shareholdings, thereby enhancing their risk resistance and enabling them to enjoy the capital appreciation brought about by investing in global quality standards, thus enhancing their consumption capacity.