中国企业“逆周期”跨国并购研究

"新常态"经济周期中,中国企业跨国并购有何特征?从经济政策频繁波动的现实出发,如何理解跨国并购的"逆周期"成因?文章基于2001-2016年中国企业对91个国家的跨国并购数据,实证检验了经济周期、经济政策不确定性对跨国并购的影响,得出以下结论：首先,中国企业的跨国并购具有显著的"逆周期"特征,下行经济周期加剧了并购规模提升;其次,经济政策不确定性与跨国并购正相关,并且在国有企业中和2008年金融危机后表现为更明显;最后,经济政策不确定性差距以及市场增长潜力差距均提升了并购规模。

Research on the “Counter-cyclical” Cross-border M&A of Chinese Enterprises

Since the financial crisis in 2009, the world economy has been in a downturn. Under this background, China's economic growth has also begun to slow down, and social and economic development has entered a "new normal." Traditional research believes that the external economic environment has an important impact on business operations, and investment decisions are often characterized by "pro-cyclicality". However, combing the practical experience of Chinese enterprises "going out" in recent years, we find that cross-border mergers and acquisitions of enterprises have presented a "adversity" trend, and the international and domestic market environment has promoted the determination and actions of enterprises to "go global". From the statistics, it is found that the world GDP growth rate has dropped from 4.26% in 2007 to -1.70% in 2009, and it has not recovered to 2.71% until 2015. At the same time, China's GDP growth rate has also fallen from 10.1% in 2004. 6.9% by 2015. During the period of 2009-2016, the scale of cross-border M&A transactions of Chinese enterprises achieved an average annual growth rate of 27.9%; the annual growth rate of transactions reached 10%, and China's cross-border M&A showed a typical "counter-cyclical" feature. So what is the relationship between M&A and business cycle? How to understand the "counter-cyclical" M&A from the perspective of uncertainty? Based on the data of multinational mergers and acquisitions (M&A) conducted by Chinese enterprises in 91 countries from 2001 to 2016, this paper empirically tests the impact of economic cycle and economic policy uncertainty on Cross-border M&A. The article finds that the "reverse-cycle" characteristics of Cross-border mergers and acquisitions by Chinese enterprises the positive correlation between economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions and the more obvious manifestation in the sample of state-owned enterprises; the "counter-cyclical" M&A is particularly evident after the 2008 financial crisis.The test found that the gap between the bilateral economic policy uncertainty and the bilateral market potential growth are both positively related to the scale of M&A.The "counter-cyclical" cross-border mergers and acquisitions of Chinese enterprises reflect the business decisions made by enterprises in relation to the market environment of bilateral countries. From the perspective of macroeconomic regulation and control, the adjustment of economic policies actually promotes "going out" of enterprises, and state-owned enterprises as "leaders". Enjoy more bonuses. From the perspective of uncertainty, we need to objectively understand the implications of "policy dividends" and investment risks, and be good at using macro-control measures to promote enterprises to actively participate in international competition and enhance their competitiveness. In addition, companies still prefer to invest in the host country with a more stable market and a more stable policy environment. From this point of view, the investment location selection criteria, which guarantees the security of funds and reduces the "inferiority of the outsiders", is still an important basis for guiding the international operation of Chinese enterprises. In addition, from China's own perspective, perfecting the market-oriented competition pattern and improving the system level is also the "sense of meaning" to attract foreign capital. In addition to uncertainties, the development potential based on the difference in GDP growth rate has also become a home country advantage for Chinese companies to "go global". Therefore, "practicing internal strength" is the "stone" for safeguarding China's export-oriented economy.