增值税降率对企业绩效与投资行为的影响研究——兼论增值税降率微观传导过程中的企业异质性问题

流转税的"税负转嫁"特征和现实企业的"议价能力"使理论上完全价外中性的增值税变为现实中的价内非中性，导致增值税降率微观传导机制"黑箱"。文章利用2015-2019年分行业上市公司的财务数据，采用双重差分模型实证检验了2018年增值税降率政策对企业投资行为、研发行为和制度性交易成本产生的影响。实证结果表明，现实中的增值税是价内非中性而非理论上的完全价外中性；降率的"抵扣冲减效应"对固定资产投资的直接负向作用显著，而降率的"收入效应"对固定资产投资的间接正向作用却不显著，最终降率政策"抵扣冲减效应"大于"收入效应"减少了固定资产投资；降率显著促进了"强势企业"的研发行为，对"弱势企业"无显著促进作用；降率节约了管理性交易成本的同时却导致政治性交易成本增加。妥善处理好增值税降率微观传导过程中的企业异质性问题，尤其是保护好降率过程中可能受损的中小企业是落实好普惠性减税的关键。

Research on the Effect of VAT Rate Reduction on Enterprise Performance and Investment Behavior: Enterprise Heterogeneity in the Process of Micro Transmission of VATRate Reduction

The characteristics of "tax burden transfer" of turnover tax and the bargaining power of real enterprises make the VAT which is theoretically completely neutral outside the price become non-neutral inside the price in reality, leading to the "black box" of the micro-transmission mechanism of VAT reduction rate. The empirical results show that the value added tax in reality is non-price neutral rather than theoretical complete price neutral. The "deduction effect" has a significant direct negative effect on fixed asset investment, while the "income effect" has an insignificant indirect positive effect on fixed asset investment. Finally, the "deduction effect" is greater than the "income effect" to reduce fixed asset investment. The rate reduction policy significantly promoted the R&D behavior of "strong firms", but had no significant promotion effect on "weak firms". The reduction rate saves the management transaction cost, but increases the political transaction cost. The key to implement the universal tax reduction is to properly deal with the enterprise heterogeneity in the micro transmission process of the VAT reduction rate, especially to protect the small and medium-sized enterprises that may be damaged in the process of the reduction rate.