经济增长为什么没有带来就业增加？

20世纪90年代以来，经济增长的就业弹性系数持续下降。为什么高速的经济增长并没有带来就业水平的显著增加？本文构建的带有雇佣成本的就业模型显示：由于雇佣和解雇成本的存在，不同类型的冲击对企业雇佣政策的影响明显不一样。具体而言，持久性的供给冲击可以带来就业水平持久性的变化；暂时性的需求冲击只能带来较小幅度的、暂时性的就业变化。所以经济增长是否能够带来就业增加依赖于推进增长的冲击来源；利用Blanchard—Quah的结构VAR分解数据，文章实证研究了不同类型的冲击对就业的影响。经验研究的结果支持理论模型的基本假说。本文的研究中国经济增长过程的就业弹性持续下降提供了合理解释。

Why Economic Growth Can＇t Bring Employment Growth？

Why economic growth can＇t bring employment growth？ The employment model with employ cost in this paper shows： due to employ and dismissal cost, different kinds of impulse affect the company employ policies obviously. In detail, permanent supply shock can causes permanent employmem fluctuation, but temporary demand shock only causes inconspicuous and temporary employment increase. Use Blanchard-Quah SVAR to decompose the data, this paper demonstrates the effect to employment from different kind of shock. Empirical research approves the basic hypothesis of the theoretical model, and it also provide the evidence that why the employment elasticity decrease persistently.