反倾销、贸易政策不确定性与中国企业高质量出口

贸易摩擦和保护主义频发加剧了贸易不确定性。本文试图从反倾销引致的贸易政策不确定性(TPU)这一新视角阐述微观企业如何应对不利冲击以实现高质量出口。基于全球反倾销数据和高度细化的海关数据匹配得到的2000-2008年样本数据，利用高维面板固定效应估计模型，本文对TPU如何影响多产品企业高质量出口进行了实证检验。研究发现：①TPU提高，会倒逼企业升级出口产品质量，考虑逆向因果等潜在内生性问题之后，结果依然稳健。②企业内产品转换是TPU倒逼出口企业产品质量升级的主要作用机制。③异质性分析发现，加工贸易、外资企业、资本品行业和高技术行业中，这一倒逼效应更显著。在国际价值链断裂加剧贸易不确定性的新形势下，本文对于深刻理解TPU和高水平对外开放之间的关联具有重要意义。

Anti-dumping,Trade Policy Uncertainty and High Quality Export of Chinese Enterprises

Against the background of the rampant global COVID-19 pandemic crisis and the downward pressure on the economy worldwide, frequent trade frictions and protectionism have exacerbated the uncertainty of trade policies. The development of foreign trade in China is now confronting increasingly complicated domestic and international situations. This article is designed to explain how micro-enterprises respond to external shock in an effort to pursue high-quality exports from a brand-new perspective of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) caused by anti-dumping.The current research on TPU is mostly performed based on the perspective of the signing of trade agreements. The potential fluctuation of tariffs before and after the signing of trade agreements is the mainstream method to identify TPU. Therefore, unlike the existing literature focused on the industry export effects of TPU, this article is intended to examine how the TPU caused by anti-dumping affects enterprises’ capability to achieve high-quality exports by affecting the transformation of internal products of multi-product enterprises.The sample data from 2000 to 2008 is acquired herein by matching the global anti-dumping data furnished by the World Bank with highly refined customs data. Meanwhile, the high-dimensional fixed effects estimation model and Poisson regression model are adopted to verify how TPU affects the export quality of multi-product enterprises.According to the research, it is found that first, the increase of TPU caused by the anti-dumping of export destination country will force the enterprises that survive to upgrade their export quality. Second, after we take into full account reverse causality and other endogenous issues, and adopt change in quality measurement method and other robustness tests, we still find that the increasing TPU will force the enterprises to upgrade their quality. A further inspection on channel mechanism shows that the product transformation within enterprises is the primary mechanism behind the enterprises’ efforts on upgrade of quality under the force of TPU. Finally, through the analysis of heterogeneity, we find that the effect of quality upgrade forced by TPU will be strengthened in processing trade, foreign-funded enterprises, capital goods and high-tech industry.This article is of great significance for you to have a profound understanding of the relationship between TPU and high-level opening up to the outside world, especially under the new situation where the international value chain is broken and the trade uncertainty is exacerbated. In fact, in order to actively respond to the ever-changing complicated international situation and continuous trade frictions, thoroughly implement the domestic and international dual-cycle development strategy, and build a new higher-level open economic system, both enterprises and policy makers are required to well understand how to achieve their own transformation and upgrading from the perspective of improving their product quality and export competitiveness under adverse external shocks.