居民收入、心理预期及其商品房价格波动

选取不同收入水平城镇居民1998～2009年的收入、消费面板数据,考察房价波动对收入和消费的影响,引入宏观经济和房屋抵押效应控制变量,利用房屋租赁价格构造房屋销售价格的工具变量进行实证研究。结果表明:房价波动下城镇居民人均可支配收入与消费间存在必然的因果关系,不同收入水平的城镇居民存在明显的消费差异。房价上涨对所有收入水平城镇居民的消费均有挤出效应,房屋财富效应则不明显,当期可支配收入是决定城镇居民房地产消费的最重要因素。

Residents’ Income,Psychological Expectation and Price Fluctuation of Commercial Housing

We adopts income data and consumption panel data of urban residents of different income levels from 1998 to 2009 to examine the impact of housing price fluctuation on income and consumption.In addition,the study introduces macro-economy and house mortgage effect to control variables.This empirical research is carried out with the use of real estate rent and leasing price to construct the instrumental variable of house selling prices.The result shows under house price fluctuation there is a kind of necessary causal relationship between per capita disposable income and consumption for urban residents.Specifically,there are great consumption differences among urban residents of different income levels.Finally,the rising of house price has a crowding-out effect on urban residents consumption;however,the house wealth effect is not evident.The current income is a key factor in deciding urban real estate consumption.