服务业结构升级能够推动产业发展吗？——基于有效结构变化指数（ESC）的实证分析

推动服务业发展与产业结构升级是我国经济高质量发展的重要举措。本文创新性地将有效结构变化指数(ESC)应用于我国2008—2017年29个省份的服务业内部结构升级的影响效应分析,研究发现:ESC的影响效应主要通过延迟效应与加速效应传导,但两者在对服务业不同发展指标上的影响呈现差异;我国服务业ESC可推动服务业增加值与服务业就业人数的增长,但会抑制服务业劳动生产率与服务业平均工资的增长;生产性服务业与高端服务业ESC是驱动服务业增加值与服务业就业人数增长的重要来源,生产性服务业与非高端服务业ESC则会显著抑制服务业劳动生产率与服务业就业人数增长。与发达国家相比,我国在服务业内部结构升级上还有巨大空间与潜力,可通过结构持续优化来有效发挥结构配置效应,促进产业发展,并推动经济增长。

Can the Upgrading of the Service Industry Structure Promote Industrial Development? Empirical Research based on Effective Structural Change Index(ESC)

Promoting the development of the service industry and upgrading the industrial structure are important measures for the high-quality development of our economy.This article innovatively applies the Effective Structural Change Index(ESC)to the analysis of the effect of the internal structural upgrading of the service industry in 29 provinces in China from 2008 to 2017.The study finds that the effect of ESC is mainly transmitted through the delay effect and acceleration effect,but the impact of the two on different development indicators of the service industry is different;China’s service industry ESC can promote the development of value-added services and employment in the service industry,but will inhibit the growth of productivity and wage levels in the service industry;productive service industry and high-end service industry ESC is an important source of driving added value and employment development in the service industry,ESC in productive services and non-high-end service industries will significantly inhibit the development of labor productivity and wage levels.Compared with developed countries,China still has huge space and potential for upgrading the internal structure of the service industry.Through the continuous optimization of the structure,the structural allocation effect can be effectively exerted to improve industrial development and promote economic growth.