我国金融化水平的度量与分析

金融风险会随着金融化的发展而不断累积,进而影响金融和经济的稳定,甚至引发金融危机。我国是否存在过度金融化问题,已引起学术界的高度关注和争论。本文构建了一个多维度的金融化评价指标体系,在此基础上利用2000年以来的数据考察了我国的金融化水平和发展趋势。研究结果表明,我国整体金融化水平不高,但存在明显的金融化趋势和过度金融化倾向,主要表现在:我国整体货币资本化程度不高,但企业部门较高的杠杆率、居民部门可支配收入偿债能力的快速下降、政府部门的隐性负债和杠杆率的快速增长可能导致未来过度货币资本化;资本虚拟化程度和虚拟资本独立程度不高,但虚拟资本发展迅速,存在过度资本虚拟化和虚拟资本空转倾向;国际市场主要通过贸易渠道影响我国金融化进程,但其影响力逐渐减弱,随着金融市场的开放,金融渠道将成为影响我国金融化进程的主要渠道。

Measurement and Analysis of Financialization Level in China

Financial risks accumulate with the development of financialization,which affects the stability of finance and economy,and even trigger a financial crisis.Whether there is excessive financialization in China has caused great concern and debate in academia.According to Marxist theory,this paper constructs a multi-dimensional evaluation index system of financialization.Based on the system,the data since 2000 is used to examine the financialization of China.The results show that the financialization level of China is not high,but excessive financialization tendencies exist,mainly in the following aspects:the overall currency capitalization is not high,but the high leverage ratio of firms,The rapid decline of solvency of households using the disposable income,as well as hidden liabilities and the rapid growth of leverage ratio of the government may lead to excessive currency capitalization in the future;the capital virtualization and the independence of virtual capital are not high,but with the rapid development of virtual capital,excessive capital virtualization and excessive independence of virtual capital may occur;the financialization of China is influenced by international market mainly through trade channels,but the influence is gradually weakened,and the financial channel will become the main channel with the opening of financial markets.